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New this Month - November 2005

Below are citations/abstracts of recently published articles and publications that have been authored and/or co-authored by Pacific Institute staff.

Berkeley

Peter Nygaard

Nygaard, P.; Grube, J.W. Mixed messages: Contributions to adolescent drinking and driving. Addiction Research and Theory, 13(5):411-426, October 2005. [with J.W. Grube of PRC/Berkeley].

This qualitative study focused on the discrepancies in messages concerning alcohol use presented by adults to young people. The purpose was to investigate how these discrepancies might impact adolescents' drinking and drinking and driving behavior. The data material consisted of semi-structured interviews with 44 adolescents who in a previous survey had admitted to have been involved in drinking and driving, riding with a drunk driver, or both. The analysis of the interviews focused on the discrepancies between messages presented by adult authorities and the respondents' experience of actual behavior from these authorities. The findings indicate that there are serious problems in the communication between adult authorities and adolescents. Parents, schools, and police are not consistent and persistent in their communication with adolescents concerning alcohol and drinking and driving. This inconsistency seems to prevent teenagers from understanding the extent of the problem of drinking and driving. Implications for research and prevention are discussed.

Calverton

David Levy

Levy, D.T.; Mumford, E.; Nikolayev, L. Recent trends in smoking and the role of public policies: Results from the SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model. Addiction. 10(10):1526-37, 2005. [with E. Mumford and L. Nikolayev of PIRE/Calverton].

AIMS: After a period of steady decline in smoking prevalence, smoking rates leveled off in the United States between 1990 and 1997, but began falling between 1997 and 2003. Trends in smoking prevalence, and the role of tobacco control policies in affecting those rates, are examined. DESIGN: A computer simulation model is used in which smoking prevalence evolves through initiation and cessation, which are in turn influenced by tobacco control policies. METHODS: The results of the model are compared to smoking prevalence measures from the US National Health Interview Survey between 1993 and 2003. We also consider the role of tax/price, clean air laws, media campaigns and youth access policies in influencing these rates. FINDINGS: Both the SimSmoke model and data for recent years indicate that adult smoking prevalence changed little between 1993 and 1997, and even increased among youth. Between 1997 and 2003, smoking prevalence has been declining. Most age, gender and racial-ethnic groups show patterns similar to that of the entire population, with differences for those aged 18-24 years. The predominant trends were explained mainly by changes in price, with some residual effect of clean air laws, media campaigns and youth access laws. CONCLUSIONS: Among public tobacco control policies, price had the dominant effect on smoking prevalence between 1993 and 2003, because few states implemented other policies to the degree necessary to affect much change. Through continued tax increases, stronger clean air laws, extensive media campaigns and broader cessation treatment programs, there is the potential to have much larger reductions in smoking prevalence.

Hyland, A.; Levy, D.T.; Rezaishiraz, H.; Hughes, J.; Bauer, J.; Giovino, G., Cummings, K. M.; Reduction in amount smoked predicts future cessation. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 19(2):221-5, 2005.

The goal of this article is to determine whether reducing cigarette consumption increases the likelihood of future cessation. Data from 3,385 participants who originally took part in the Community Intervention Trial for Smoking Cessation completed detailed tobacco use phone surveys in 1988, 1993, and 2001. Between 1988 and 1993, 15% of smokers reduced their daily cigarette consumption by 50% or more, and 9% of the entire baseline sample maintained this reduction in 2001. Those who reduced more than 50% were 1.7 times more likely to quit smoking by 2001 compared with those who did not reduce. Few smokers are able to reduce their consumption by 50% or more, although those who do are more likely to quit compared with those who do not.

Hsu C.C.; Levy D.T.; Wen C.P.; Cheng T.Y.; Shu C.C. The effect of the market opening on trends in smoking rates in Taiwan. Health Policy, Sep 28; 74(1):69-76, 2005.

OBJECTIVES: To examine smoking rates before and after the opening of the market to foreign imports. METHODS: Consumer surveys of Monopoly Bureau, National Health Interview Survey and official tobacco consumption, production and import data were used to calculate smoking rates, cigarette consumption, and the market share of imports. Age-adjusted smoking rates were used to compare trends before and after the market opening. RESULTS: The market share of the imports reached half in 2001 from 2% before opening. Compared to projected rates, smoking rates in 2001 for all and younger males, and all and younger females were increased by 12, 6, 202, and 249%, respectively, over and above the projected trends. The ratio of smoking rates between younger and older adults became larger, from 0.62 to 0.74 in males and from 0.32 to 0.98 in females. Per capita consumption increased after the market opening, particularly when large increases in smuggled cigarettes were considered. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that the market opening triggered an increase in smoking rates is contrary to the assertion by U.S. cigarette producers that importation would only make smokers switch brands. Younger adults and females were more affected, reflecting their higher sensitivity to the appeal from foreign cigarettes. Because of the marketing strategy of imports, more young people smoked, at an earlier age. Experience from Taiwan revealed that after the initial increase in smoking rates, the opening had galvanized the anti-smoking sentiments, legitimized and strengthened tobacco control policies and tempered the severity of the adverse impact.

Ted Miller

Miller, T.R.; Taylor, D.M. Adolescent suicidality: Who will ideate, who will act? Suicide and Life-threatening Behavior, 35(4): 425-435, 2005. [with D.M. Taylor of PIRE/Calverton].

Responses to the 1999 Youth Risk Behavior Survey including suicide ideation, attempt, medically treated attempt, and six problem behaviors were analyzed. Youth across the spectrum ideated. Overwhelmingly, the 17% of youth with more than three problem behaviors were the youth who acted; they accounted for 60% of medically treated suicidal acts. Compared to adolescents with zero problem behaviors, the odds of a medically treated suicide attempt were 2.3 times greater among respondents with one, 8.8 with two, 18.3 with three, 30.8 with four, 50.0 with five, and 227.3 with six. A count of problem behaviors offers a reliable way to identify suicide risk.

Finkelstein, E.A.; Chen, H; Miller T.R.; Corso, P.S.; Stevens J.A. A comparison of the case-control and case-crossover designs for estimating medical costs of nonfatal fall-related injuries among older Americans. Medical Care, 43(11): 1087-1091, 2005.

OBJECTIVES: Although the case-crossover design has been used widely in epidemiological and cost-offset studies as an alternative to the case-control design, it is rarely applied to cost-of-illness studies. In this study, costs for a series of hospitalized and nonhospitalized fall-related injuries were computed using the 2 approaches to allow for a direct comparison of the results. RESEARCH DESIGN: We used claims data from the Medicare fee-for-service 5% Standard Analytical Files. For the case-control design, those who sustained nonfatal fall-related injuries were tracked for 1 year after their first fall, and costs were compared, using regression analysis, to annual costs for a comparison sample of nonfallers. The case-crossover design used a modified regression approach that compared monthly costs of fallers before and after fall. RESULTS: We present unit costs for falls requiring (1) a hospitalization resulting in a live discharge, (2) an emergency department visit not resulting in an admission, and (3) falls requiring office-based or hospital outpatient visits only. Using the case-control design, these costs were $22,260, $3890, and $5040 respectively. Using the case-crossover design, these estimates were reduced to $20,920, $3230, and $4200. CONCLUSIONS: On average, estimates of the costs of fall injuries from the case-control design were between 6% and 17% greater than those from the case-crossover approach. These differences likely result from our inability to control for comorbidity differences between fallers and nonfallers in the case-control design. Under several scenarios, including unobserved heterogeneity between cases and controls, the case-crossover design, although computationally more intensive, produces more accurate results.

Elizabeth Mumford

Mumford, E.A.; Levy, D.T.; Gitchell, J.G.; Blackman, K.O. Tobacco control policies and the concurrent use of smokeless tobacco and cigarettes among men, 1992-2002. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 7(6): 891-900, 2005. [with D.T. Levy and K.O. Blackman of PIRE/Calverton].

Accelerating the decline in smoking prevalence requires an understanding of changes in the concurrent use of and the substitution between different tobacco products, such as smokeless tobacco (SLT) and cigarettes. SLT could play an important role in reducing the toll of smoking-related illness and premature mortality. Research examining the role of tobacco control policies in explaining concurrent use of SLT and cigarettes has been minimal. Using the Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplements (CPS-TUS), we examined tobacco control policies in relationship with adult males' SLT use concurrent with smoking over the period 1992-2002. Consistent with the decline in smokeless-only and cigarette-only rates, concurrent use of SLT and cigarettes declined during the period. SLT users, faced with home or workplace smoking bans, are less likely to report smoking. Smokers with a home ban appear more likely to use SLT, but in more recent years, smokers with a workplace ban are less likely to use SLT. Tobacco excise taxes do not signal substitution between cigarettes and SLT products. Understanding current use patterns of the range of tobacco products, including their interaction with available policy levers, is vital in assessing whether changes that might promote substitution of arguably less toxic SLT products for highly toxic cigarettes are likely to lead to net public health gains or losses. Findings of the present study, in concert with other research about transitional probabilities between behavioral states, will inform the design of an effective policy framework that supports the objective of reducing tobacco-related death and disease.

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